June GBI: Moldmaking — More of the Same
Several components contracted even faster in June, driving a consecutive second 0.6-point drop in moldmaking activity.
GBI: Moldmaking activity dropped another 0.6 points in June. Photo Credit, all images: Gardner Intelligence
Moldmaking activity contracted again in June, dropping another 0.6 points like it did in May. The Gardner Business Index (GBI) Moldmaking ended the month at 46.8.
With the exception of exports that contracted at a steady rate, components that contracted in May contracted faster in June. A couple components that were not contracting in May slowed in June, still managing to remain in expansionary territory.
Most components that contracted in May contracted faster in June. This was the case for new orders, production and backlog. (This graph is on a three-month moving average.)
Related components, new orders, production and backlog, were some of the ones that contracted faster in June. Backlog and new orders have been contracting for nearly a year now. Production has also been contracting since July 2022, though it experienced a reprieve from this activity from January to May 2023. It is surprising that neither new orders nor backlog paralleled that of production, considering this component expands to fulfill new orders and chip away at backlog. Supplier deliveries and employment lengthened and expanded, respectively, though slower than the previous month.
Sometimes, the future business metric — a sentiment question included in the GBI survey but not part of the calculation — paints a more optimistic picture when current state GBI components are not encouraging. That is not the case, however, for moldmaking in June. While the future business metric is growing, meaning more people think business in the next 12 months will be better than those that think it will be worse, the proportion of individuals who think this have declined the last three months. It is still comfortably distant from contracting activity, but the trend is concerning.
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