Moldmaking Industry Ends 2021 on Rollercoaster

The Gardner Business Index (GBI): Moldmaking declined more than two points to end December at 56.5. For much of 2021 the Index’s readings demonstrated an unusual sequence of sharp “sawtooth” movements, moving higher for two months followed by two months of decline. At year-end, the Index finished only 3 ½ points above its January 2021 reading, but more than seven points below its mid-year high. December’s results were pulled lower by the slowing expansion in supplier deliveries, new orders, production and employment activity. Further pressuring the overall index reading was the first contractionary reading for export orders activity since April. Despite greater volatility in supplier delivery activity in recent months, readings remain within a 10-point band, the bottom of which remains well above even the highest of pre-pandemic levels.

Moldmakers reported the widest “production surplus” for all of 2021 during December as measured by the positive difference between production and (total) new orders activity readings. That only three months in 2021 registered surpluses is unusual for its low frequency. Historically, production surpluses have been more likely than not; however, when elevated supplier delivery readings indicate weak supply chain performance—as is the case presently—production deficits become much more frequent.