Published 4/30/2018

Gardner Business Index: Moldmaking Extends Record Growth Rate

Growth in backlogs are the primary driver of the Moldmaking Index, at 60.3 for February.

Former Chief Economist & Director of Analytics, Gardner Intelligence

February’s Moldmaking Index reading of 60.3 beat the record-setting growth rate that occurred in the prior month. For a third consecutive month, no components of the Moldmaking Index contracted. However, export growth that spiked in December has slowed in both of the past two months.

Moldmaking data for February’s activity indicated that a combination of record-level growth in new orders and tepid growth in supplier deliveries resulted in a spike of backlogs across the moldmaking industry. Supplier deliveries in February grew at their second slowest recorded rate in the last 12 months.

In 1998, MoldMaking Technology provided industry information based on member responses from national trade associations. For example, the magazine included information from the American Mold Builders Association’s (AMBA) Business Forecast, which projects business conditions in the upcoming months. Today, Gardner Intelligence surveys the magazine’s readership and reports on industry data and trends each month in print and online.

MoldMaking Technology celebrates 20 years in print in 2018. Here’s to 20 more years!

The Gardner Business Index (GBI): Moldmaking registered 60.3 for February, extending its record-setting growth for a second month. In comparison to the same month one-year ago and to the average reading for 2017, the Moldmaking Index increased by 6.2 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively. Gardner Intelligence’s review of the underlying data for the month revealed that growth in backlogs was the greatest driver of the Moldmaking Index in February, followed by production and new orders. All three of these measures recorded multi-year, record-setting growth rates in February. Employment, supplier deliveries and exports pulled the Moldmaking Index lower. Exports and supplier deliveries showed slowing rates of growth. No components of the Moldmaking Index contracted in February.

Unprecedented growth in new orders in 2018 has sent shocks through the industry. Moldmakers have responded by increasing production to rates that it has not experienced since 2012. Yet, through February, backlogs continued increasing despite increases in production. According to the data, supplier deliveries have yet to appreciably respond to strong growth in new orders and growth in backlogs. In comparison to the prior month’s reading and the reading from February 2017, supplier deliveries are growing more slowly at present.

Unprecedented growth in new orders in 2018 has sent shocks through the industry.

In a pattern similar to the Moldmaking Index, survey responses only for custom processors in February indicated significant industry expansion for a second consecutive month. In recent periods, the overall growth in the Moldmaking Index has outpaced the growth for custom processors. Robust readings in new orders and employment from custom processors in February narrowed this gap.

About the Author

Michael Guckes

Michael Guckes is the chief economist for Gardner Intelligence, a division of Gardner Business Media (Cincinnati, Ohio, United States). He has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years among a range of industries. He is available at mguckes@gardnerweb.com.