Growth Predicted in Equipment and Software Investment in 2017

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation produces a yearly Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook report, for which it sends out quarterly updates. According to its Q4 update to the 2017 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, investment in equipment and software is projected to expand 4.3 percent in 2017. The combination of continued elevated business confidence, a recovering oil sector, and the release of pent-up demand following lackluster investment growth in 2016 drive the new investment growth estimate, revised upward from 3.6 percent in the Q3 Outlook. The report predicts that equipment and software investment will improve significantly from last year’s performance, even as uncertainties relating to tax and trade policy, along with heightened geopolitical tensions, create a mix of opportunities and risks. The report, which is focused on the $1 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry, highlights key trends in equipment investment and places them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.

Highlights from the study include:

• 2017 capital spending remains on solid footing as businesses are confident and interest rates remain low. Overall, Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation expects equipment and software investment to expand by 4.3 percent in 2017 after a solid growth in both Q1 and Q2 of 4.5 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively.
• Credit market conditions remain relatively healthy, despite a moderate decline in credit demand over the last quarter. Lending standards are mostly unchanged, but demand for credit fell across multiple consumer and business loan types. However, portfolios are exceptionally strong and financial stress is muted.
• 2017 is projected to be another year of moderate economic growth. A strong labor market, healthy consumer spending, and improved private sector investment have powered the U.S. economy throughout the year, despite subpar residential investment and decreased government spending. Overall, the U.S. economy is projected to grow 2.3 percent—a slight decrease from the Q3 forecast, yet well above the 1.5 percent growth rate from 2016.

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, which is included in the report, tracks 12 equipment and software investment verticals. In addition, the “Momentum Monitor Sector Matrix” provides a customized data visualization of current values of each of the 12 verticals based on recent momentum and historical strength. Most equipment verticals should expect their growth outlook to improve in 2017 relative to 2016.

Over the next three to six months, the Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor forecasts that:

1. Agriculture machinery investment growth may improve modestly.
2. Construction machinery investment growth is likely to decelerate.
3. Materials handling equipment investment is expected to strengthen.
4. All other industrial equipment investment should continue to improve.
5. Medical equipment investment growth is likely to continue to slow down.
6. Mining and oilfield machinery investment growth will continue to rebound, though growth rates may peak soon.
7. Aircraft investment growth may decelerate.
8. Ships and boats investment growth is likely to strengthen.
9. Railroad equipment investment growth should improve, though recent negative movement is notable and should be monitored.
10. Trucks investment growth is expected to rebound.
11. Computers investment growth should remain solid.
12. Software investment growth should remain steady.

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation produces the Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook report in partnership with economic and public policy consulting firm Keybridge Research. The annual economic forecast provides a three- to six-month outlook for industry investment with data, including a summary of investment trends in key equipment markets, credit market conditions, the U.S. macroeconomic outlook and key economic indicators. The Q4 report is the final update to the 2017 Annual Outlook before the publication of the 2018 Annual Outlook in December.

Download the full report at the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation online. All of the organization’s studies are available for download from the its online library.