Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Improves in October

When asked about the outlook for the future, survey respondent Valerie Hayes Jester, President, Brandywine Capital Associates, Inc., said, “The equipment finance industry has weathered and will continue to weather the storms of this economy and all its uncertainty. Access to capital is strong, but demand continues to be weak for small business customers. I do not see that dynamic changing in the coming year to 18 months.”

October 2011 Survey Results: The overall MCI-EFI is 50.7, an increase from the September index of 47.6.

•         When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 9.8% of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, up from 4.9% in September.  80.5% of respondents believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, an increase from 61.0% in September.  9.8% of executives believe business conditions will worsen, a decrease from 34.1% in September.

•    17.1% of survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, an increase from 12.2% in September.  68.3% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, unchanged from the previous month.  14.6% believe demand will decline, down from 19.5% who believed so in September.

•    12.2% of executives expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 15.0% in September.  87.8% of survey respondents indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, an increase from 82.5% the previous month.  No survey respondents expect “less” access to capital, a decrease from 2.5% who expected less access to capital in September.

•    When asked, 14.6% of the executives reported they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, down from 17.5% in September.  78% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, an increase from 72.5% last month, while 7.3% expect fewer employees, a decrease from 10.0% in September.  

•    58.5% of the leadership evaluates the current U.S. economy as “fair,” an increase from 55.0% last month.  41.5% rate it as “poor,” down from 45.0% in September.

•    4.9% of survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, up from 2.5% in September.  78.0% of survey respondents indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, up from 75.0% in September.  17.1% responded that they believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, down from 22.5% who believed so last month.  

•    In October, 26.8% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, down from 30.0% in September.  68.3% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, down from 70.0% last month, and 4.9% believe there will be a decrease in spending, up from no one who believed so last month.  

October 2011 MCI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership: Depending on the market segment they represent, executives have differing points of view on the current and future outlook for the industry.

Bank, Large Ticket: “The equipment leasing and finance industry continues to be resilient.  The pipeline of activity remains strong in spite of the negative headline news about the economy.” Executive, Large Ticket, Bank

Bank, Middle Ticket: “Restraint is the operative word with capital equipment spending.  Replacement equipment, refinancing at lower rates and some select industry growth is creating new business today and in the near future.”  Harry Kaplun, President, Frost Equipment Leasing and Finance

Financial Services, Small Ticket: “Growth will be a challenge for many in the short-term. Successful companies will be driven by innovation and access to low-cost capital.”  Executive, Small Ticket, Financial Services

Why an MCI-EFI? Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.

Who participates in the MCI-EFI? The respondents are comprised of a wide cross section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents and captive equipment finance companies.  The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity.  Since the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry's confidence.

How is the MCI-EFI designed? The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:
1.    Current business conditions
2.    Expected product demand over the next four months
3.    Access to capital over the next four months
4.    Future employment conditions
5.    Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
6.    U.S. economic conditions over the next six months
7.    Business development spending expectations
8.    Open-ended question for comment

How may I access the MCI-EFI?  Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, www.leasefoundation.org/IndRsrcs/MCI/, included in the Foundation Forecast newsletter and included in press releases.   Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that provides vision for the equipment leasing and finance industry through future-focused information and research. Primarily funded through donations, the Foundation is the only organization dedicated to future-oriented, in-depth, independent research for the leasing industry. www.LeaseFoundation.org.