Index Sees Another Month of Volatile, Slowing Growth
Registering 51.4 for August 2018, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Moldmaking recorded another month of volatile but slowing growth since reaching an all-time high in February.
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Contraction in new orders lowered August’s Moldmaking Index data, which was only partially off-set by strength in supplier deliveries. All components of the Moldmaking Index reported either slowing growth or contraction during the month.
August saw new orders report its first contractionary reading since the fourth quarter of 2016. However, moldmakers should be able to maintain current production levels given that backlogs have expanded during the last 18 consecutive months.
Registering 51.4 for August 2018, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Moldmaking recorded another month of volatile but slowing growth since reaching an all-time high in February. Compared to the same month one year ago, the Moldmaking Index is down 9.3 percent, but compared to the beginning of the calendar year, it is down 15.8 percent. Gardner Intelligence’s review of the underlying data for the month reveals that contraction in new orders and backlog and no change in employment and exports were the primary drivers of the four-point drop in the Moldmaking Index between July and August. Supplier deliveries continued its accelerating growth trajectory for another month, which helped the Moldmaking Index from falling further in August.
The latest new orders reading marks an end to the longest continuous expansion in new orders on record at almost 20 months.
The contraction in new orders was a surprise given the strength of the overall manufacturing economy in 2018. The latest new orders reading marks an end to the longest continuous expansion in new orders on record at almost 20 months. By comparison, the prior new orders record, which was set in 2014, lasted only eight months.
About the Author
Michael Guckes
Michael Guckes is the chief economist for Gardner Intelligence, a division of Gardner Business Media (Cincinnati, Ohio, United States). He has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years among a range of industries. He is available at mguckes@gardnerweb.com.
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